International changes, Economic trends and enterprises' choice
——Zhao Wei, Center for Research of Private Economy, Zhejiang University
Mr. Zhao mentioned that under the background of "great changes unseen in a century", the global economic environment and international relations are undergoing profound changes, and this change is reflected in many important moments, from Putin's return to the political stage in 2012, to the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, to the Sino-US trade war in 2018-2019 and the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022. These events have led to the reconstruction of the supply chain, industrial chain and globalization pattern.
In the short term, although China's economy has recovered, it is under great downward pressure. Consumption, investment and foreign trade, as the three major drivers, have different contributions and performances to economic growth. Consumption demand accounts for 53% of GDP, with a contribution rate of more than 70%, while investment demand accounts for 43%. The dependence on foreign trade is 35%, which directly affects about one-third of the GDP. Under the coexistence of multiple ownership systems, the performance of private and foreign enterprises has become a weather vane for economic development. Leading data such as PMI and price index show that although the economy is recovering, the youth unemployment rate is high, college graduates have difficulty finding jobs, and the phenomenon of internal competition is obvious.
In the medium and long term, China's potential economic growth rate is expected to decline, but it still has the advantages of large market, diversity and innovation-driven. The advantages of a large economy, a large population and a large market, and strong economic diversity make China's position in the global economy still important. As the economy enters a high-consumption stage, the growth momentum is shifting from factor and investment driven to innovation driven, which makes the long-term outlook cautiously optimistic.
Faced with a complex and changing international environment and economic situation, Chinese companies need to recognize the general trend and follow the trend. Against the background of double deceleration and a strong government and a weak market, companies should seize the new opportunities brought by the fourth industrial revolution. Through technological innovation and global layout adjustments, enhance their competitiveness and risk resistance to achieve sustainable development. In the new international economic environment, companies should understand the characteristics of the industry and their own positioning, actively respond to challenges, seize new opportunities, and promote the long-term and healthy development of companies and the economy.