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Global PX-PTA supply demand pattern analysis and forecast
°™°™Mrs Sun Hong, Vice-General Manager from Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Co., Ltd.

2017-10-19 10:40:43
Mrs Sun Hong, Vice-General Manager from Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Co., Ltd. gave her speech of Global PX-PTA supply demand pattern analysis and forecast 
 

Mrs Sun first made an forecast for 2018, pointing out that macro economy and industry chain will be major influential factors. Asian PX market may be balanced or slightly oversupplies in 2017-2019. Investment peak may appear after 2020, when PX market may take a hit. Growth of global PX consumption is estimated at above 3.5%. In terms of domestic supply and demand, PX production increase will mainly come from state-owned companies. Domestic production growth may not exceed 500kt over 2017. PX-MX price spread may keep at high level, while PX-naphtha spread narrows slightly. PTA new capacity is less than expected, while downstream polyester output y-o-y growth is above 8% in Jan-Sep 2017. Mrs Sun is upbeat in downstream polyster industry, and belives that PTA market will improve after 2017. She also points out that there will changes in the development of industry chain after 2022. Competition in single sector will evolve to comprehensive one of the whole industry chain. Industrial competition will upgrade, trade links will reduce, and big changes will take place in pricing and trading chanels. Demand for virgin PET chips will increase due to re-PET import ban in 2017.
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