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Outlook on Broad Heading Asset Allocation for the Medium Term
¡ª¡ªMrs Yang Xi, Senior analyst for macro economy & precious metal from Yong'an Futures

2017-10-19 10:21:29
Mrs Yang Xi, Senior analyst for macro economy & precious metal from Yong'an Futures gave her speech of Outlook on Broad Heading Asset Allocation for the Medium Term 

Mrs Yang said that for economic outlook, firstly, economic structure kept improving as the proportion of demand increased and emerging industries remained booming. Secondly, the nature law of economic growth: Economic growth tracks consumption demand down and real estate may fluctuate in the short term. Thirdly, policy focuses on risk prevention, control the risks and let it release slowly. Under that background, the key is the power and responsibility division between provincial governments and central government, state-own enterprise reform and establishment of medium-term mechanism of real estate. That would need long-term stable monetary policy while ¡°tight¡± or ¡°loose¡± will depend on short-term economic growth and inflation. 

For asset allocation outlook, firstly, stocks are the best, no matter in short, medium or long terms. Real estate investment may be restricted in future. Secondly, it is the best for real estate prices to stabilize in the peak, achieving a soft landing. Thirdly, in commodity markets, short-term external stimulus (deleveraging shock in 2016-2017) may cause periodic opportunity but in the medium term, it may range bound. Lastly, exchange rate may stay firm 
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